AI Outsmarts Pollsters As Trump Elected President
An Artificial Intelligence computer correctly predicted the outcome of the US election
An AI system called MogIA predicted that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election – and sure enough, he has. The abrasive Republican candidate not only had higher levels of engagement on social media platforms and search engines than his opponent Hillary Clinton, but also 25% more than Barack Obama back in 2008.
MogIA was created by Sanjiv Rai, the founder of the Indian Artificial Intelligence startup Genic.ai. The AI used 20 million data points, gathered from sites including Facebook, Google, Twitter and YouTube, to analyse levels of engagement and make an overall prediction based on this information. Unfortunately for Clinton’s ‘supporters’, the system that correctly predicted the outcome of the last three US elections has continued its running streak. So, even though the Democrats were generally ahead in the polls, Trump generated more interest than his decidedly quieter rival. Despite the quiet confidence that American people would vote for Clinton, the AI system was able to deal with emotional information in an objective way. That’s right – AI knew more than we did about our own political affairs.
Commentators were quick to assert that the higher levels of engagement didn’t necessarily mean there was a positive reaction to Trump’s infamous outbursts. It’s true that MogIA can’t distinguish between negativity and positivity. . . yet. This means that more people in the U.S. may have been talking about the Republican representative, but it would be safe to assume that not all of them were singing his praises. Trump may have experienced 25% more engagement that Obama, but it’s worth bearing in mind that social media was far less active eight years ago. Even so, according to Rai, the candidate with the most engagement (regardless of whether it was negative or positive) in the last three elections eventually ended up winning the presidency. Once again, to the horror of the liberal world, MogIA was right.
The prediction made by MogIA is representative of just how much public data there is, how easily accessible it is and how instrumental it can be. It also demonstrates the huge significance of online information. There is so much data available that it can be used to accurately predict the political future of an entire nation. If that’s not proof of the age of Big Data, then nothing is. The fact that this information can be used to make accurate predictions, as unwelcome as they may be, is a slap in the face for sceptics and actually for society as a whole. After the next fours years of a Trump presidency, it looks like MogAI’s analysis (and Artificial Intelligence in general) will be taken far more seriously.
Should we trust the polls when there are other accurate prediction methods? If AI can correctly predict the result of human feeling, what else could it do? Share your thoughts and opinions.